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Abstract We present the successful recovery of common-envelope ejection efficiency assumed in a simulated population of double white dwarf (DWD) binaries like those which may be observed by the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission. We simulate the formation of DWD binaries by using the COSMIC population synthesis code to sample binary formation conditions such as initial mass function, metallicity of star formation, initial orbital period, and initial eccentricity. These binaries are placed in the m12i synthetic Milky Way–like galaxy, and their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for the LISA instrument is estimated, considering a Galactic gravitational-wave foreground informed by the population. Through the use of Fisher estimates, we construct a likelihood function for the measurement error of the LISA-bright DWD binaries (≥20 SNR,f_GW≥ 5 mHz), in their gravitational-wave frequency (f_GW) and chirp mass. By repeating this process for different assumptions of the common-envelope ejection efficiency, we apply Bayesian hierarchical inference to find the best match to an injected astrophysical assumption for a fiducial population model. We conclude that the impact of common-envelope ejection efficiency on the mass-transfer processes involved in DWD formation may be statistically relevant in the future observed LISA population, and that constraints on binary formation may be found by comparing simulated populations to a future observed population. 

Indirect nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from streams and rivers are a poorly constrained term in the global N2O budget. Current models of riverine N2O emissions place a strong focus on denitrification in groundwater and riverine environments as a dominant source of riverine N2O, but do not explicitly consider direct N2O input from terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combine N2O isotope measurements and spatial stream network modeling to show that terrestrial-aquatic interactions, driven by changing hydrologic connectivity, control the sources and dynamics of riverine N2O in a mesoscale river network within the U.S. Corn Belt. We find that N2O produced from nitrification constituted a substantial fraction (i.e., > 30%) of riverine N2O across the entire river network. The delivery of soil-produced N2O to streams was identified as a key mechanism for the high nitrification contribution and potentially accounted for more than 40% of the total riverine emission. This revealed large terrestrial N2O input implies an important climate-N2O feedback mechanism that may enhance riverine N2O emissions under a wetter and warmer climate. Inadequate representation of hydrologic connectivity in observations and modeling of riverine N2O emissions may result in significant underestimations. 

ABSTRACT We explore the eccentricity measurement threshold of Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) for gravitational waves radiated by massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) with redshifted BH masses Mz in the range 104.5–107.5 M⊙ at redshift z = 1. The eccentricity can be an important tracer of the environment where MBHBs evolve to reach the merger phase. To consider LISA’s motion and apply the time delay interferometry, we employ the lisabeta software and produce year-long eccentric waveforms using the inspiral-only post-Newtonian model taylorf2ecc. We study the minimum measurable eccentricity (emin, defined one year before the merger) analytically by computing matches and Fisher matrices, and numerically via Bayesian inference by varying both intrinsic and extrinsic parameters. We find that emin strongly depends on Mz and weakly on mass ratio and extrinsic parameters. Match-based signal-to-noise ratio criterion suggest that LISA will be able to detect emin ∼ 10−2.5 for lighter systems (Mz ≲ 105.5 M⊙) and ∼10−1.5 for heavier MBHBs with a 90 per cent confidence. Bayesian inference with Fisher initialization and a zero noise realization pushes this limit to emin ∼ 10−2.75 for lower-mass binaries, assuming a <50 per cent relative error. Bayesian inference can recover injected eccentricities of 0.1 and 10−2.75 for a 105 M⊙ system with an ∼10−2 per cent and an ∼10 per cent relative errors, respectively. Stringent Bayesian odds criterion ($$\ln {\mathcal {B}}\gt 8$$) provides nearly the same inference. Both analytical and numerical methodologies provide almost consistent results for our systems of interest. LISA will launch in a decade, making this study valuable and timely for unlocking the mysteries of the MBHB evolution. 

Abstract The response of highly productive croplands at northern mid-latitudes to climate change is a primary source of uncertainty in the global carbon cycle, and a concern for future food production. We present a decadal time series (2007 to 2019) of hourly CO 2 concentration measured at a very tall tower in the United States Corn Belt. Analyses of this record, with other long-term data in the region, reveal that warming has had a positive impact on net CO 2 uptake during the early crop growth stage, but has reduced net CO 2 uptake in both croplands and natural ecosystems during the peak growing season. Future increase in summer temperature is projected to reduce annual CO 2 sequestration in the Corn Belt by 10–20%. These findings highlight the dynamic control of warming on cropland CO 2 exchange and crop yields and challenge the paradigm that warming will continue to favor CO 2 sequestration in northern mid-latitude ecosystems. 

The Wide-field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) is a 1x1 degree infrared survey telescope under devel- opment at MIT and Caltech, and slated for commissioning at Palomar Observatory in 2021. WINTER is a seeing-limited infrared time-domain survey and has two main science goals: (1) the discovery of IR kilonovae and r-process materials from binary neutron star mergers and (2) the study of general IR transients, including supernovae, tidal disruption events, and transiting exoplanets around low mass stars. We plan to meet these science goals with technologies that are relatively new to astrophysical research: hybridized InGaAs sensors as an alternative to traditional, but expensive, HgCdTe arrays and an IR-optimized 1-meter COTS telescope. To mitigate risk, optimize development efforts, and ensure that WINTER meets its science objectives, we use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) techniques commonly featured in aerospace engineering projects. Even as ground-based instrumentation projects grow in complexity, they do not often have the budget for a full-time systems engineer. We present one example of systems engineering for the ground-based WINTER project, featuring software tools that allow students or staff to learn the fundamentals of MBSE and capture the results in a formalized software interface. We focus on the top-level science requirements with a detailed example of how the goal of detecting kilonovae flows down to WINTER's optical design. In particular, we discuss new methods for tolerance simulations, eliminating stray light, and maximizing image quality of a fly's-eye design that slices the telescope's focus onto 6 non-buttable, IR detectors. We also include a discussion of safety constraints for a robotic telescope. 

The Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer (WINTER) is a new infrared time-domain survey instrument which will be deployed on a dedicated 1 meter robotic telescope at the Palomar Observatory. WINTER will perform a seeing-limited time domain survey of the infrared (IR) sky, with a particular emphasis on identifying r -process material in binary neutron star (BNS) merger remnants detected by LIGO. We describe the scientific goals and survey design of the WINTER instrument. With a dedicated trigger and the ability to map the full LIGO O4 positional error contour in the IR to a distance of 190 Mpc within four hours, WINTER will be a powerful kilonova discovery engine and tool for multi-messenger astrophysics investigations. In addition to follow-up observations of merging binaries, WINTER will facilitate a wide range of time-domain astronomical observations, all the while building up a deep coadded image of the static infrared sky suitable for survey science. WINTER's custom camera features six commercial large-format Indium Gallium Arsenide (InGaAs) sensors and a tiled optical system which covers a <1-square-degree field of view with 90% fill factor. The instrument observes in Y, J and a short-H (Hs) band tuned to the long-wave cutoff of the InGaAs sensors, covering a wavelength range from 0.9 - 1.7 microns. We present the design of the WINTER instrument and current progress towards final integration at the Palomar Observatory and commissioning planned for mid-2021.